diff --git a/conductor/tracks/video_analysis_score_dynamics_giorgini_20260621/artifacts/ocr.md b/conductor/tracks/video_analysis_score_dynamics_giorgini_20260621/artifacts/ocr.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..965af1d6 --- /dev/null +++ b/conductor/tracks/video_analysis_score_dynamics_giorgini_20260621/artifacts/ocr.md @@ -0,0 +1,693 @@ +# OCR Results + +## frame_00001.jpg + +``` +Introduction +Many scientific problems—from climate dynamics and fluid +turbulence to molecular systems and neuroscience—involve +modeling high-dimensional, chaotic, multiscale dynamical +systems observed only through a subset of variables. +Ludovico Giorghi +2 +``` + +## frame_00002.jpg + +``` +e 5 of +Introduction +Many scientific problems—from climate dynamics and fluid +turbulence to molecular systems and neuroscience—involve +modeling high-dimensional, chaotic, multiscale dynamical +systems observed only through a subset of variables. +For these systems, trajectory prediction is often the wrong +target: small errors amplify rapidly, so reproducing +individual paths is neither realistic nor especially useful. +The meaningful goal is instead to learn a data-driven +reduced model that reproduces the relevant statistical and +dynamical observables of the resolved variables. +Ludovico Giorgt)) +Effective reduced +model +* = f (x) + g(x) +x: resolved observed variables +f: effective deterministic drift +g(x) Q: unresolved fast fluctuations +2 +``` + +## frame_00004.jpg + +``` +e 7 of +What We Aim For +Ludovico Giorghi +We want to develop a data-driven modeling method that scales well with the system's dimension and can handle +realistic datasets, which may be unevenly sampled or restricted to a low sampling frequency. This requires +searching for a modeling method with the following features: +``` + +## frame_00006.jpg + +``` +What We Aim For +Ludovico Giorgini +We want to develop a data-driven modeling method that scales well with the system's dimension and can handle +realistic datasets, which may be unevenly sampled or restricted to a low sampling frequency. This requires +searching for a modeling method with the following features: +1 +No or very few model integrations. We must be able to infer the model from data without needing long and +repeated forward simulations to calibrate candidate models. +Avoid state-space clustering. We want to bypass state-space clustering techniques for reconstructing the +velocity field, since these approaches suffer from the curse of dimensionality and deteriorate quickly. +Avoid finite-difference estimation from trajectories. The method should not rely on short-time derivatives of +the trajectories to estimate the drift. Finite differences are highly sensitive to noise and data sparsity, whereas +stationary statistics and correlations are much more robust to estimate. +3 +``` + +## frame_00008.jpg + +``` +'age 15 7ij +Two Complementary Directions +Direction 1: calibration within a +model ansatz +We assume a parametric stochastic model is +already available. +The goal is to calibrate its coefficients so that +selected stationary observables match the target +data. +The emphasis is on obtaining the required +sensitivities while using as few model integrations +as possible. +Ludovico Giorgini +5 +``` + +## frame_00009.jpg + +``` +e 16 of +Two Complementary Directions +Direction 1: calibration within a +model ansatz +We assume a parametric stochastic model is +already available. +The goal is to calibrate its coefficients so that +selected stationary observables match the target +data. +The emphasis is on obtaining the required +sensitivities while using as few model integrations +as possible. +Ludovico Giorghi +Direction 2: direct construction +from observables +We do not assume a prescribed functional form for +the reduced model. +Instead, we derive a class of stochastic models that +reproduces the chosen observables by construction. +The emphasis is on enforcing the constraints +directly from data, without simulating candidate +models during inference. +5 +``` + +## frame_00011.jpg + +``` +e 20 of +Score Function as the Key Ingredient +For both directions, the key object is the stationary score: +S(X) = Vx log pss(x), +which encodes the local geometry of the invariant measure. +Knowing the score is often easier than trying to reconstruct the full density explicitly. +Modern generative methods make score estimation feasible in high-dimensional, non-Gaussian settings. +Denoising Score Matching (DSM) += x -k az for z N (0, l), and train a neural network ge to minimize the +We perturb the data with small Gaussian noise, x +Ludovico Giorghi +denoising loss: +CDSM = E [Ilge(xO) +2 +ZII +1 +s(x) +DSM turns score estimation into a denoising regression problem, bypassing intractable normalization constants and scaling +efficiently to high dimensions. +6 +``` + +## frame_00013.jpg + +``` +•age 24 of 7t +Parameter Sensitivities as Linear Responses +Consider the parametric stochastic model: +dxt= F(xt; a) dt + E(xt; P) dWt, +For target observables Om, calibration requires the statistical Jacobian: +smj(0) — +DOJ +An infinitesimal parameter variation induces a perturbation of the dynamics: +uj(x) = Da. F (x; a), +vj(x) = DßJE(x; P). +Key reduction +Ludovico +Computing parameter sensitivities is equivalent to estimating the linear response of (Om) to infinitesimal drift and diffusion +perturbations. +7 +``` + +## frame_00014.jpg + +``` +age 25 of +Estimating Parameter Sensitivities with the GFDT +For a stationary Ito SDE and any observable A, the GFDT gives the first-order response: +< A(xt) B(XT, T)) dT, +B(x, t) = V • ZA(x, t) -k ZA(x, t) • s(x), +where s(x) = +V log p(x) is the stationary score and +Q(x, t) — +Ludovico Giorgnq +8 +``` + +## frame_00016.jpg + +``` +23 of 7?) +Parameter Sensitivities as Linear Responses +Consider the parametric stochastic model: +dxt= F(xt; a) dt + E(xt; P) dWt, +For target observables Om, calibration requires the statistical Jacobian: +smj(0) — +An infinitesimal parameter variation induces a perturbation of the dynamics: +uj(x) = Da. F (x; a), += DßJE(x; P). +Ludovico Giorgini +7 +``` + +## frame_00019.jpg + +``` +e 27 of +Estimating Parameter Sensitivities with the GFDT +For a stationary Ito SDE and any observable A, the GFDT gives the first-order response: +Q(x, t) — Y(x) V(x, +Ludovico Giorghi +where s(x) = +< A(xt) B(XT, T)) dT, +V log p(x) is the stationary score and +t) -k ZÅ(x, t) • s(x), +t) +Hence, specifying the perturbation vector gives: +drift perturbation: V = u, +diffusion +perturbation: +1 +2 +Choose A = Om, and use (u, V) = (uj, 0) or (0, Vj) according to the parameter being differentiated. +o +The resulting response coefficient is exactly the desired sensitivity Smj. +o +Therefore, one long unperturbed trajectory plus an estimate of the stationary score is enough to build the full +o +statistical Jacobian. +Calibration step +Estimate S(0n) with GFDT, then use it in a regularized Gauss—Newton update for the model parameters. +8 +``` + +## frame_00021.jpg + +``` +e 32 of +Past Works on GFDT + Score Modeling +Ludovico Gior hi +In all these response formulas, the central missing quantity is the stationary score s(x) = V log PSS For +high-dimensional systems, estimating this score has historically been the main bottleneck in applying the +GFDT. +A common workaround is to approximate the steady-state density with a multivariate Gaussian, which gives a +cheap closed-form score. This approximation introduces strong biases in strongly non-Gaussian regimes, such +as bimodal, intermittent, or turbulent dynamics. +Recent neural score-estimation methods now recover accurate non-Gaussian scores efficiently in high +dimension. +Recent works showed accurate response estimation in high-dimensional stochastic PDEs (0(103) grid points), +including Allen—Cahn reaction—diffusion dynamics and 2D turbulence, demonstrating the feasibility of this +approach. +References +Giorgini et al., Response Theory via Generative Score Modeling, Physical Review Letters (2024) +Giorgini et al., Predicting Forced Responses of Probability Distributions via the Fluctuation-Dissipation +Theorem and Generative Modeling, PNAS (2025) +9 +``` + +## frame_00023.jpg + +``` +Triad Calibration +Results +dtter•nces +mismatch +age 34 of +GFOT. +Observable deviations +neratim +Parameter deviations +2 +3 +4 +5 +9 +Ludovico Giorghi +10 +``` + +## frame_00024.jpg + +``` +e 35 of +Application: Two-Scale Lorenz—96 Closure Calibration +Goal: calibrate a stochastic closure for Xk so the reduced model matches key statistics of the full two-scale system. +Ludovica Giorghi +Full two-scale model +—Xk—l — Xk+l) — X k + F +dXk = +hc +Yj,k cit + ax dWkX, +hc +dYj,k = +with k = 1, . +Reduced stochastic closure +—cb cYj,k -k —Xk dt + ay dWY +36, and J = IO. +— Xk — I — 2 — Xk+l ) — + F — + I Xk + a 2 + + d VVk . +dXk = +(P(X), V (X), Sk(X), Ku(X), G , where p, V, Sk, Ku, Cl denote the spatial mean, +Active observables +(X) = +variance, skewness, excess kurtosis, and nearest-neighbor covariance. +Calibrated parameters 0 = (ao, al, a2, a3, +Starting from a representative two-scale trajectory, we estimate S = DO with GFDT and update 0 via regularized +Gauss—Newton. +12 +``` + +## frame_00027.jpg + +``` +e 45 of +Imposing the Stationary PDF +Start from the Ito diffusion: +dxt = F(xt) dt -k v6E(xt) dWt, +If pss is the target stationary density and s = V log pss, the stationary Fokker—Planck equation implies: ++ V. R(x) -k R(x) s(x), +where R(x)T +Equivalently: +M(x) s(x) + V. M(x), +M(x) — +Symmetric part +D = MT) +diffusion tensor and fluctuation amplitude +score-driven relaxation toward pss +Ludovico Giorghi +15 +``` + +## frame_00028.jpg + +``` +46 of 7t +Imposing the Stationary PDF +Start from the Ito diffusion: +dxt = -k v6E(xt) dWt, +If pss is the target stationary density and s = V log pss, the stationary Fokker—Planck equation implies: ++ V. R(x) -k R(x) s(x), +where R(x)T +Equivalently: +M(x) s(x) + V. M(x), +Ludovico Giorgini +Symmetric part +diffusion tensor and fluctuation amplitude +score-driven relaxation toward pss +Antisymmetric part +R = — MT) +rotational / circulatory transport +changes kinetics without changing pss +15 +``` + +## frame_00039.jpg + +``` +58 of +Example 1: Analytic Warmup with the CIR Diffusion +Cox—Ingersoll—Ross (CIR) square-root diffusion: +dXt = +True mobility and stationary score: +M(x) = — +K (o — Xt ) dt -F 27 Xt dWt , ++ öM(x), +97, +PSS (x) ¯ +r(K9/7) +Exact transition density and conditional score: +p(xt I xo) — +s(x) = +¯ä¯ +xoxt +e—Kt) +'(1 — e—Kt) +xt +69/7—1 +e K t xoxt +xoxt +Here r ( • ) is the Euler Gamma function and Iq(•) is the modified Bessel function of the first kind. Using (x) xa , the lagged correlation derivative is +Ca,l (t) +Ludovico Giorghi +19 +``` + +## frame_00041.jpg + +``` +e 60 of +Example 2: A 2D Nonequilibrium SDE +We next consider a two-dimensional nonequilibrium overdamped Langevin diffusion with affine multiplicative noise. +(X, y) T, with +The resolved state is x = +dxt = f(xt) dt+ B(xt) d Wt +w = 11 +Ludovico Giorgini +The drift combines confinement and irreversible rotation: +f(x) = —VU(x) + wJx, +o +1 +122 +—1 +with quartic potential +The multiplicative noise is affine in the state: += åx4 + äXY + ay + + F2Y +No analytic score or conditional score is available. We therefore learn +the stationary score s(x) with DSM, +o +the joint score of lagged pairs and hence the conditional score, +o +the correction field öM(x) with a neural network. +o +The mobility fit uses coordinate, quadratic, and cubic probes, so the inverse problem is constrained by a broad family of +lagged correlations. +21 +``` + +## frame_00042.jpg + +``` +Example 2: +too +Learned Mobility Field +00 +00 +as +00 +os +Ludovico Giorgini +• 00 +``` + +## frame_00043.jpg + +``` +Example 2: Forward Validation of Station&Y and Statistics +Ludovico Giorgini +``` + +## frame_00047.jpg + +``` +Example 3: Partially Observed Kuramoto—Sivashinsky +Ludovico Giorgini +Hee we the 8M O, •o the ROM fuly and constant m•ttix O. +Ibe fu' system is the equat•o +Au — IV(u2), +a •Landard mo&l Of chaos. +Jntecrate the POE 912 modes. y'eUing a 1024-dimensional real state. +one mode 32 a partially observed system; the unresolved modes act as an effectrve +stochastc bxh. +The surrogate is to *adow trajectories, but to reproduce the invariant measure and time +"Ede +PDF +Langevin PDF +Langevin PDF +0.4 +0.3 +xli] +Data PDF +Data PDF +02 +Data PDF +``` + +## frame_00049.jpg + +``` +Example 4: Cyclo-Stationary PlaSim Extension +is not st.tbnyy the Imposes a strong peOc•iic +forcing. +as an autonomous ane a..rnüttirg the +•tat. hematic +•e (•irqz•t), r +in the augmented sp•ce. we the Md infer +constant ceerat<€ e•sxtjy in tie cap. +The •ith the curutt +it—teed into +dft.i.,. — v'äE,i.,. +Apr/Jc•ton: a reduced rode* for the c«nponeot$ of +PlaSim sut€aee-eunpeatur• driven by the —nual +Ludovico Giorgini +``` + +## frame_00052.jpg + +``` +Example 4: +PlaSim Validation in Physical Space +262 206 +Ludovico Giorgini +08 +06 +0 02 +06 +oo +04 +02 +os +04 +02 +00 +298 +1.10, .16 +300 +30, +o e 31.60, .12 +os +02 +00 +299 +291 295 +0.05' +000 +302 2S4 +oto• +005: +0004 +230 +02 +00 +04. +02. +278 +274 +2m zeo 282 +1.45, +297 +296 +208 +300 +ooo +sot +301 +04 +02 +00 +296 +20 +00 +06 +03 +02 +06 +291 +oe +04 +02 +oo +oo +290 +2B2 +295 +297 +(K) +296 +Ternswature (K) +Ternperature (K) +Temperature (K) +(an PC') • 120 pcs) -Model pcs) +``` + +## frame_00055.jpg + +``` +age 69 of +Conclusions +Ludovico Giorgini +For high-dimensional chaotic systems, reproducing statistically relevant observables is often more meaningful +than reproducing trajectories. +30 +``` + +## frame_00059.jpg + +``` +Ludovico Giorgili +``` + +## frame_00080.jpg + +``` +Imposing the Stationary PDF +Ludovico Giorgini +Start from the ltd diffusion: +Symmetric part +dxt -k v'fiE(xt) d Wt, +If pss is the target stationary density and s = V log pss, the stationary Fokker—Planck equation implies: ++ V. R(x) + R(x) s(x), +where R x) T +Equivalently: +—R(x). +Symmetric part +diffusion tensor and fluctuation amplitude +score-driven relaxation toward pss +Antisymmetric part +R = — MT) +rotational / circulatory transport +changes kinetics without changing pss +15 +``` + +## frame_00081.jpg + +``` +If i' the target *Mionary duuity S +Imposing the Stationary PDF +lt6 diffusion: +Symmetric part +where R(x)T +log the statiat—y +— + v. 00) +ck rmpl— +e stationary Fokker—Planck equation implies: ++ R(x) + R(x) s(x), +and fluctuation amplitude +score•driven relaxation towa/å)j M(x) + V' M(x), M(x) D(x) + R(x). +Symmetric part +diffusion tensor and fluctuation amplitude +score-driven relaxation toward pss +Antisymmetric part +R = — MT) +rotational / circulatory transport +changes kinetics without changing pss +Ludovico Giorgini +15 +``` + +## frame_00082.jpg + +``` +Start the +If is the tatg•e dut•ity S A. , the station—y Fokker—Planck eeu•tsn imple +Equivakntjy +FIX) +Symmetric part +diffusion tensoe and fluctuation ampfitude +wore-driven relaxation toward +score-driven relaxation toward pss +M(x) - DO) RIX). +changes kinetics without changing pss +Ludovico Giorgili +15 +``` + +## frame_00083.jpg + +``` +Imposing the PDF +Start the It' d"won. +dgt +If is the duuity ard S +T — -RIRI. +eber• R(x) +FIX) +Symmetric part +log , the Fokker—Planck impl— +— m.) + 00) +M(x) - DO) RIX). +diffusion and fluctuation amplitude +score•driven relaxation toward +Ludovico Giorgili +15 +``` + +## frame_00087.jpg + +``` +e 45 of +Start from the Ito diffusion: +dxt = F(xt) dt -k VäE(xt) dWt, +If pss is the target stationary density and s = V log pss, the stationary Fokker—Planck equation implies: ++ V. R(x) -k R(x) s(x), +where R(x)T +Equivalently: +M(x) s(x) + V. M(x), +Symmetric part +diffusion tensor and fluctuation amplitude +score-driven relaxation toward pss +wore-driven relaxation toward +M(x) — +changes kinetics without changing +Ludovico Giorgi-li +15 +``` + +## frame_00090.jpg + +``` +Page 45 of 77 +Equivalently +Imposing the Stationry PDF +Surt frem the It'S d4Son: +dÅt +If is the dÜt•ity j log A. , the •tatka•y implea +Equiv•akntjy +Ludovica Giorghi +FIX) +Symmetric part +diffusion tensor and fluctuation ampGtude +wore-driven relaxation toward +MO) - DO) RIX). +Antisymmetric part +rotational / circulatory transport +changes kinetics without changing +``` diff --git a/conductor/tracks/video_analysis_score_dynamics_giorgini_20260621/artifacts/phase2.log b/conductor/tracks/video_analysis_score_dynamics_giorgini_20260621/artifacts/phase2.log new file mode 100644 index 00000000..a9e01e9e --- /dev/null +++ b/conductor/tracks/video_analysis_score_dynamics_giorgini_20260621/artifacts/phase2.log @@ -0,0 +1,2 @@ +Phase 2 Keyframes for C:\projects\manual_slop\conductor\tracks\video_analysis_score_dynamics_giorgini_20260621\artifacts\video.mp4 + OK: kept 31 frames diff --git a/conductor/tracks/video_analysis_score_dynamics_giorgini_20260621/artifacts/phase2_commit.log b/conductor/tracks/video_analysis_score_dynamics_giorgini_20260621/artifacts/phase2_commit.log new file mode 100644 index 00000000..af274ec3 --- /dev/null +++ b/conductor/tracks/video_analysis_score_dynamics_giorgini_20260621/artifacts/phase2_commit.log @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +[master edd2f181] conductor(score_dynamics_giorgini): Phase 2 Keyframes - 31 unique frames from 91 raw (threshold 0.05) + 32 files changed, 39 insertions(+) + create mode 100644 conductor/tracks/video_analysis_score_dynamics_giorgini_20260621/artifacts/frames/extraction_meta.json + create mode 100644 conductor/tracks/video_analysis_score_dynamics_giorgini_20260621/artifacts/frames/frame_00001.jpg + create mode 100644 conductor/tracks/video_analysis_score_dynamics_giorgini_20260621/artifacts/frames/frame_00002.jpg diff --git a/conductor/tracks/video_analysis_score_dynamics_giorgini_20260621/artifacts/phase3.log b/conductor/tracks/video_analysis_score_dynamics_giorgini_20260621/artifacts/phase3.log new file mode 100644 index 00000000..342c848f --- /dev/null +++ b/conductor/tracks/video_analysis_score_dynamics_giorgini_20260621/artifacts/phase3.log @@ -0,0 +1,2 @@ +Phase 3 OCR for C:\projects\manual_slop\conductor\tracks\video_analysis_score_dynamics_giorgini_20260621\artifacts\frames (winsdk) + OK: OCR'd 31 frames in 2.3s